Will mankind perish

What is the future of human development? This is a matter of common concern. In history, the so-called "end of the world" prediction has been one after another. In fact, there have been many large-scale extinctions in the history of biological evolution, of which the two extinctions 250 million years ago and 65 million years ago were particularly serious.

Campbell, a researcher at the Institute of Earth Sciences at the Australian National University, has shown that 250 million years ago, Siberia had the largest lava explosion on earth, which led to 95% of the destruction of animals and plants. 65 million years ago, a near Earth Asteroid with a diameter of more than 10 kilometers hit the earth, which directly led to the extinction of dinosaurs.

Gott III, an astrophysicist at Princeton University, published an article entitled "the meaning of Copernicus principle for us to look forward to the future" in the British journal Nature on May 27, 1993. Based on the theory of probability, he put forward the following equation:

(1 / 39) × past time

According to the literature he quoted, the average time that most species appear on the earth is 1 million to 11 million years, of which people have lived for about 2.5 million years

(1 / 39) × 2   500   000 years

It can be inferred that human beings may be extinct in the next 641   025 ~ 97   500   000 years, with a probability of 95%. Anyway, human beings can live for a long time!